tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892134081049774386.post842882589126218808..comments2023-12-02T09:37:08.472-05:00Comments on Autism Jabberwocky: Does John Elder Robison Understand Autism Prevalence?M.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/12033918835169823548noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892134081049774386.post-27764875186259542442010-12-12T15:37:15.123-05:002010-12-12T15:37:15.123-05:00Thanks, I'm glad you like the site.Thanks, I'm glad you like the site.M.J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12033918835169823548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892134081049774386.post-61002952256950911232010-12-12T14:48:26.625-05:002010-12-12T14:48:26.625-05:00Such an interesting and important post. I've b...Such an interesting and important post. I've been learning a lot from your blog - you've really helped to refine my own understanding of autism. Thank you.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892134081049774386.post-19844254196020999372010-08-11T19:45:46.793-04:002010-08-11T19:45:46.793-04:00Just off the top of my head, there is this study -...Just off the top of my head, there is this study - http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19737791 - that found that only a quarter of the increases in autism rates in California were due to diagnosing practices. You might not call that generally accepted, but the results do speak directly to the point. I know there are other studies like this out there, but I would have to go dig up the references to them.<br /><br />We can quibble about how much of the increase over the last whatever time period was due to social factors but the point remains that at least a part is likely to be a true increase. Does it matter if the increase due to this factor is *only* a 100% or 200% change? An real increasing rate of autism implies a cause of autism which means that we have a problem.<br /><br />As for the CDD, you might very well be right that it is increasing but, as I pointed out above, even if the increase is huge it can't play even a minor role in the increase of autism. But, if a substantial part of the increase is due to CDD then I would say that means that social factors play even less of a role than is commonly thought.<br /><br />I would agree that that there is no disservice done by stating that there are a lot of unknowns when dealing with autism prevalence, and if you had said that I would not have said anything. If you had even said that there are a lot of unknowns but you think that the vast majority of the increase was due to social factors, I would have disagreed but not said anything. <br /><br />The disservice is when you don't cleanly separate your opinion from science or misstate the science. And maybe you didn't mean to do that or maybe I am just misunderstanding what you were saying, but that is how it looked to me.M.J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12033918835169823548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892134081049774386.post-55521154534541646822010-08-11T18:50:32.680-04:002010-08-11T18:50:32.680-04:00MJ, I am not aware of any generally accepted studi...MJ, I am not aware of any generally accepted studies that are able to break down increases in rates of autism outside the factors we've discussed.<br /><br />There is certainly a widespread perception that there is an increase, and of course the statistics do support that conclusion, but how much seems unquantifiable. <br /><br />I chose the CDD example because it's a very serious condition and a number of doctors cited it to me as something they see more of. You are right; it's rare, so "seeing more might mean you see three cases instead of two. No one has hard numbers but more that one person has cited that example among others.<br /><br />You can make of that what you will. I have the sense that the increase is real, and that's about as far as it goes. Beyond that there is not no unraveling the various legitimate explanations for various parts of the increase in the raw numbers.<br /><br />I don't think any disservice is done to anyone by stating that.John Robisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07407165016025447113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892134081049774386.post-1022634627886218302010-08-11T18:24:40.169-04:002010-08-11T18:24:40.169-04:00The larger issue here is accuracy in discussions a...The larger issue here is accuracy in discussions about the science of autism. When you go onto an online forum and suggest that CDD is responsible for a part of the increase of autism and that "there have not been any studies" on where the increase is, you are simply being inaccurate and presenting a false picture of what the data is. <br /><br />Doing so is harmful to everyone involved - especially to those that you are saying that you want to help. If we continue forward with our little half truths and preconceived notions, we are going to go nowhere fast. The only way forward is to work with accurate information.<br /><br />If you knew that there are studies that show increases in the narrow categories alone, why on earth would you say that these studies do not exist in another forum? Was that just for the benefit of your audience or did I misunderstand what you were saying?M.J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12033918835169823548noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1892134081049774386.post-13620973866036209762010-08-11T14:03:29.337-04:002010-08-11T14:03:29.337-04:00Where would I be without you to correct me? I kno...Where would I be without you to correct me? I know there have been studies that show increases in autism diagnosis rate that exclude broader diagnostic criteria, etc. <br /><br />I absolutely believe autism has or is becoming more common. The question is, what are the numbers? No consensus exists because of the number of factors involved. <br /><br />For every person who "knows" the answer in this area there is someone else with an alternate certainty.<br /><br />So what do you want to make of it? Bring me a grant proposal to get new and substantive insight into what's increasing and where, and I'll read it. And my interest in studies that can lead to help for people who live with all kinds of autism still stands.John Robisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07407165016025447113noreply@blogger.com